Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.390276 2.537489 2.698190 2.888495 3.110279 3.364016 3.681604
2025-04-20 2.247156 2.443485 2.669956 2.956344 3.318272 3.775555 4.426489
2025-04-27 2.168900 2.401507 2.681571 3.055433 3.563165 4.269983 5.431281
2025-05-04 2.071360 2.321000 2.630347 3.059321 3.674057 4.599888 6.336930
2025-05-11 1.993442 2.255188 2.587246 3.062761 3.777423 4.937492 7.450912
2025-05-18 1.898030 2.158923 2.494378 2.983910 3.741258 5.031408 8.133494
2025-05-25 1.838386 2.104251 2.451512 2.969800 3.800671 5.307183 9.522872
2025-06-01 1.783696 2.052272 2.407697 2.948416 3.842721 5.560826 11.220521
2025-06-08 1.732947 2.002478 2.363090 2.920686 3.868373 5.788414 13.331097
2025-06-15 1.705598 1.982293 2.358010 2.952126 4.001744 6.306137 19.031439
2025-06-22 1.640248 1.907561 2.271137 2.847508 3.870313 6.137548 19.294865
2025-06-29 1.606304 1.874481 2.242467 2.833836 3.909127 6.425536 26.910391
2025-07-06 1.564427 1.830185 2.197229 2.793094 3.896768 6.593174 38.984686
2025-07-13 1.548148 1.820595 2.202031 2.834753 4.054955 7.350958 NaN
2025-07-20 1.543754 1.827169 2.230763 2.918966 4.319697 8.718948 NaN
2025-07-27 1.519185 1.803983 2.213094 2.920821 4.404056 9.509711 NaN
2025-08-03 1.496439 1.782476 2.196774 2.923481 4.491179 10.450366 NaN
2025-08-10 1.457899 1.737006 2.141541 2.851932 4.388137 10.278772 NaN
2025-08-17 1.434835 1.713256 2.119168 2.839097 4.429407 11.036589 NaN
2025-08-24 1.411575 1.688501 2.094183 2.819673 4.451363 11.743910 NaN
2025-08-31 1.388259 1.662999 2.067047 2.794470 4.454946 12.368907 NaN
2025-09-07 1.377793 1.655887 2.068526 2.823039 4.606949 14.692599 NaN
2025-09-14 1.341635 1.610144 2.007027 2.727845 4.405999 13.177214 NaN